Picking an NCAA Champion
When it comes to wagering on the March Madness Bracket, the one thing you always want to avoid is: overthinking it. It can become so tempting to go contrarian in an office pool or a futures bet that people talk themselves right into terrible decisions. Here are some tips on how to have some upset fun while also putting you into a position to win some cash.
Defense matters, but not as much as offense
Some people are going to do the Leo DiCaprio meme and point at this and scream “Virginia!” and that is kind of correct. However, one thing that you should never forget is that Virginia’s slow it down style of play was so effective because they were even more efficient on offense than they were on defense.
In 2019 when the Cavaliers won the national championship, they were fifth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, but they were second in adjusted offensive efficiency. They were 19th in effective field goal percentage and 8th in three-point percentage offense.
During the 2021 tournament, Baylor was known to be a great defensive team, but they were also ranked second in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Going back to 2018, Villanova was the best team in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Make sure your championship team is efficient on the offensive end.
Pick your upsets early but don’t go crazy
A mistake too many people make in their brackets is convincing themselves that a nice mid-major 12 or 13 seed can make a deep run. While that is part of the fun, it’s incredibly unlikely. In the tournament history, #12 seeds have a winning percentage of 36% in the round of 64 and a 42% rate in round two. However, if you are lucky enough to take that correct team into the sweet sixteen, jump ship. When the #12 seeds get to the second weekend, they are 1-20 straight up in those matchups.
That said, if you feel strongly about taking an eleven seed into the second weekend, think about riding that wave. Eleventh seeded teams have a 36% winning percentage in the sweet sixteen and are 4-4 historically in the elite eight.
Something else to think about, teams coming out of the fifth seed line are the only teams on the top eight seed lines never to win a national championship.
Number one seeds are there for a reason
Sure it’s fun to take some random six-seed to the championship, but the fact is that those teams rarely make it. At this point, the data supports the fact that you should probably go chalk but evaluate the matchup when you get into the second weekend.
Now, you really don’t need to do a ton of evaluating when it comes to your #1 seeds. The top dogs have a sparkling 81% winning percentage in the round of 16. If you allow these superiorly talented and likely well-coached teams to prepare for nearly a week, they will take advantage of it.
That said, number ones win their elite eight games at just a 59% rate. That valley then rises back to a 60% winning percentage in the final four and a 65% winning percentage in the championship game. The top seed line is 22-12 in championship games.
If you’re tempting fate, go with a four or eight
While both are long shots to win the tournament, there is some value on these seed lines. Both seeds are just 1-2 in title games, but they have the two highest winning percentages when it comes to the elite eight. Eight seeds 5-3 in the elite eight and 3-2 in the final four games. Four seeds are 13-8 in the elite eight but just 3-10 in the final four.
The trick here is to pick well-coached teams that are tremendously undervalued. For instance, both Michigan State and Iowa State are on the eight-line, according to Haslametrics.com. The Spartans are incredibly well-coached, with Tom Izzo boasting eight final fours in his career along with a title. The Cyclones, meanwhile, have hung some impressive pelts on their wall this season, taking down Texas, Texas Tech, Iowa, Xavier, and Memphis.
